October Student Lettings: Navigating Opportunities in a Challenging Market

While most property investors focus entirely on the September student lettings rush, some opportunities may exist in October for landlords who understand the complex dynamics of the current market. However, investors must approach this sector with realistic expectations, given the significant challenges facing UK student accommodation in 2024-25.

Understanding the October Student Market Reality

The traditional narrative suggests October presents untapped opportunities, but current market conditions require a more nuanced approach. Recent data shows the student accommodation sector is experiencing unprecedented challenges that affect year-round lettings potential.

Current Market Context

The UK student accommodation market faces significant headwinds in 2024-25. Applications for study visas have dropped by 16% compared to 2023, largely due to recent immigration policies limiting international students from bringing family members to the UK. Additionally, six of the ten largest student populations in the UK have declined compared to the previous year, reflecting broader demographic changes and shifting student preferences.

These factors directly impact October letting opportunities, as the pool of students requiring mid-term accommodation has contracted alongside overall student numbers.

Why Students Might Move in October

Despite market challenges, legitimate reasons for October accommodation needs do exist, though the scale may be smaller than previously anticipated.

Course Transfers and Changes

University transfer data indicates that 78% of successful transfers occur during or immediately after the first year of study. However, most UK universities make it difficult to transfer mid-academic year, with many requiring students to wait until the following September. This limits genuine October transfer opportunities, though some semester-based institutions may accommodate earlier moves.

Course changes within the same university represent a more realistic October market segment. Students who discover their chosen subject isn't suitable may switch courses if spaces are available, particularly in universities operating on semester systems where timing allows for credit transfers.

The Dropout and Replacement Market

Student dropout rates have reached historic highs, rising from 32,491 in 2018-19 to 41,630 in 2022-23 across England, Wales and Northern Ireland—a 28% increase over five years. When students leave university in October, they may create accommodation vacancies that existing students need to fill to maintain affordability.

However, this replacement market operates under financial pressure, as remaining students often seek cost reductions rather than premium accommodation, limiting pricing opportunities for landlords.

Pricing Realities in October

Unlike claims of premium pricing, October lettings typically operate under different financial pressures than September lettings.

Market-Driven Pricing

Students seeking accommodation in October often face urgent needs, but this doesn't automatically translate to higher rents. Current market conditions, including:

• Declining student numbers
• Increased competition from purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA)
• Financial pressures on students
• Economic uncertainty

These factors often constrain rather than enhance pricing power for private landlords.

Competitive Landscape

The surge in purpose-built student accommodation has fundamentally changed the competitive landscape. Many PBSA providers offer flexible letting terms and maintain availability throughout the academic year, providing alternatives that can limit private landlord pricing power.

Strategic Considerations for October Lettings

Success in October lettings requires understanding current market realities rather than relying on theoretical advantages.

Location and Property Type

Properties in prime university locations may indeed find October demand, particularly from:

• International students arriving for January intakes
• Students transferring between courses within the same institution
• Mature students with different accommodation timing needs

However, landlords should verify actual demand in their specific location rather than assuming universal applicability.

Flexible Terms and Competitive Pricing

Given current market pressures, successful October lettings often require:

• Competitive rather than premium pricing
• Flexible tenancy terms that accommodate academic calendars
• High-quality properties that compete effectively with PBSA offerings
• Strong relationships with university accommodation offices

Risk Management in Current Market

October lettings carry additional risks in the current environment that require careful consideration.

Financial Verification

With student financial pressures increasing and maintenance loans failing to keep pace with accommodation costs (particularly in London, where average PBSA rents now exceed maximum maintenance loans), thorough financial verification becomes crucial.

Enhanced referencing, guarantor requirements, and clear understanding of student funding sources help mitigate risks associated with urgent placements.

Market Volatility

The rapidly changing student accommodation landscape means market conditions can shift quickly. Landlords should maintain flexibility and realistic expectations rather than banking on theoretical premium pricing.

University Partnerships and Market Intelligence

Building relationships with university accommodation offices provides valuable market intelligence, though expectations should remain realistic.

Accommodation Office Collaboration

Universities maintain records of students seeking private accommodation throughout the year. However, these lists have contracted alongside overall student numbers, and universities increasingly direct students toward institutional or PBSA options.

International Student Services

While international students do arrive throughout the academic year, recent visa policy changes have reduced these numbers significantly. Landlords targeting this segment should verify current policies and student flows rather than relying on historical patterns.

Financial Planning for October Lettings

October lettings require careful financial planning that accounts for current market realities.

Realistic Revenue Projections

Rather than expecting premium pricing, landlords should model October lettings based on:

• Market-rate pricing or potential discounts to attract tenants
• Shorter tenancy terms that may reduce annual yields
• Increased void periods between tenancies
• Higher tenant turnover costs

Cost-Benefit Analysis

The effort required to secure October tenants—including marketing, viewings, referencing, and potential void periods—should be weighed against realistic rental returns rather than optimistic premium pricing scenarios.

Current Market Adaptation Strategies

Successful student landlords in 2024-25 are adapting to market realities through several approaches:

Diversification Options

Many landlords are considering flexibility between student and professional tenant markets, given the uncertainty in student demand. This requires properties suitable for either market and understanding of different regulatory requirements.

Early Marketing

Starting property marketing well in advance—ideally by October of the preceding year—helps capture the diminishing pool of student renters before competition intensifies.

Quality and Service Focus

With increased competition from PBSA providers, private landlords must emphasise property quality, responsive service, and competitive pricing rather than relying on market scarcity for pricing power.

Conclusion

While October may present some opportunities in the student lettings market, current conditions require a realistic rather than optimistic approach. The combination of declining student numbers, increased PBSA competition, and economic pressures creates a challenging environment where success depends on competitive pricing, quality offerings, and strong local market knowledge rather than assumptions about premium pricing opportunities.

Landlords considering October lettings should conduct thorough local market research, maintain competitive rather than premium pricing expectations, and ensure their properties and services can compete effectively with institutional alternatives in an increasingly challenging market.

Sources and Data

Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA): Student dropout and transfer statistics
UK Home Office: Student visa application data showing 16% decline in 2024
University accommodation offices: Transfer process and timing information
Current market reports: PBSA competition and student number trends
HEPI Accommodation Costs Survey 2024: Student accommodation pricing and loan adequacy

Note: This article reflects market conditions as of September 2024. Given the rapidly changing nature of the student accommodation sector, investors should seek current local market data before making investment decisions.